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101029s2011 ne | s |||| 0|eng d |
| 020 ## - NÚMERO INTERNACIONAL NORMALIZADO PARA LIBROS |
|---|
| International Standard Book Number |
9789048188970 |
| -- |
978-90-481-8897-0 |
| 040 ## - FUENTE DE CATALOGACIÓN |
|---|
| Transcribing agency |
MX-MeUAM |
| 050 #4 - SIGNATURA TOPOGRÁFICA DE LA BIBLIOTECA DEL CONGRESO |
|---|
| Classification number |
HB848-3697 |
| 082 04 - NÚMERO DE CLASIFICACIÓN DECIMAL DEWEY |
|---|
| Classification number |
304.6 |
| Edition number |
23 |
| 100 1# - ASIENTO PRINCIPAL--NOMBRE PERSONAL |
|---|
| Personal name |
Bijak, Jakub. |
| Relator term |
author. |
| 245 10 - MENCIÓN DE TITULO |
|---|
| Title |
Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View |
| Medium |
[recurso electrónico] / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc. |
by Jakub Bijak. |
| 264 #1 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE, AND COPYRIGHT NOTICE |
|---|
| Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture |
Dordrecht : |
| Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer |
Springer Netherlands : |
| -- |
Imprint: Springer, |
| Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice |
2011. |
| 300 ## - DESCRIPCIÓN FÍSICA |
|---|
| Extent |
XXIV, 316 p. |
| Other physical details |
online resource. |
| 336 ## - CONTENT TYPE |
|---|
| Content type term |
text |
| Content type code |
txt |
| Source |
rdacontent |
| 337 ## - MEDIA TYPE |
|---|
| Media type term |
computer |
| Media type code |
c |
| Source |
rdamedia |
| 338 ## - CARRIER TYPE |
|---|
| Carrier type term |
online resource |
| Carrier type code |
cr |
| Source |
rdacarrier |
| 347 ## - DIGITAL FILE CHARACTERISTICS |
|---|
| File type |
text file |
| Encoding format |
PDF |
| Source |
rda |
| 490 1# - MENCIÓN DE SERIE |
|---|
| Series statement |
The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, |
| International Standard Serial Number |
1389-6784 ; |
| Volume/sequential designation |
24 |
| 505 0# - NOTA DE CONTENIDO |
|---|
| Formatted contents note |
List of tables and figures -- Part I. Introduction -- Part II. Explaining and forecasting migration -- Part III. Examples of Bayesian migration predictions -- Part IV. Perspectives of forecast makers and users -- Part V. Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Subject Index -- Index of Names -- Annex A. Data sources and the preparatory work -- Annex B. WinBUGS code used in the presented Bayesian forecasts -- Annex C. Bayesian forecasts of selected migration flows in Europe. |
| 520 ## - NOTA DE RESUMEN, ETC. |
|---|
| Summary, etc. |
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications. “This is a great book that represents a step-change in the forecasting of international migration. Jakub Bijak advocates for the use of Bayesian statistics - a natural way to combine subjective prior information with statistical data. The Bayesian framework provides also a natural way to further develop the migration forecasting process that is ultimately aimed at accounting for and reducing the different uncertainties, and that involves cognitive agents with different expertise - migration experts, population forecasters and forecast users - in order to accomplish that aim. The book is a must for everyone interested knowing how migration, especially international, will evolve and respond to changing conditions, events and policies.” <Prof. Frans Willekens, Director of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, and Professor of Population Studies, University of Groningen |
| 596 ## - |
|---|
| -- |
19 |
| 650 #0 - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO DE MATERIA - TERMINO TEMÁTICO |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Social sciences. |
| 650 #0 - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO DE MATERIA - TERMINO TEMÁTICO |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Mathematical statistics. |
| 650 #0 - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO DE MATERIA - TERMINO TEMÁTICO |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Migration. |
| 650 #0 - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO DE MATERIA - TERMINO TEMÁTICO |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Demography. |
| 650 14 - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO DE MATERIA - TERMINO TEMÁTICO |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Social Sciences. |
| 650 24 - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO DE MATERIA - TERMINO TEMÁTICO |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Demography. |
| 650 24 - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO DE MATERIA - TERMINO TEMÁTICO |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Migration. |
| 650 24 - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO DE MATERIA - TERMINO TEMÁTICO |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Statistical Theory and Methods. |
| 710 2# - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO - NOMBRE CORPORATIVO |
|---|
| Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element |
SpringerLink (Online service) |
| 773 0# - HOST ITEM ENTRY |
|---|
| Title |
Springer eBooks |
| 776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY |
|---|
| Relationship information |
Printed edition: |
| International Standard Book Number |
9789048188963 |
| 830 #0 - ASIENTO SECUNDARIO DE SERIE--TITULO UNIFORME |
|---|
| Uniform title |
The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, |
| International Standard Serial Number |
1389-6784 ; |
| Volume number/sequential designation |
24 |
| 856 40 - LOCALIZACIÓN Y ACCESO ELECTRÓNICOS |
|---|
| Public note |
Libro electrónico |
| Uniform Resource Identifier |
<a href="http://148.231.10.114:2048/login?url=http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0">http://148.231.10.114:2048/login?url=http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0</a> |
| 942 ## - TIPO DE MATERIAL (KOHA) |
|---|
| Koha item type |
Libro Electrónico |
